New Trial Subscribers: Due to the slow activity during the holidays, your free trials will be extended through January 31, 2020.
07 January 2020 Tuesday: Commentary
NEW TRADE TODAY: Last Friday’s military action sent Gold soaring up to almost $1600/ounce and increased volatility of options on both gold and crude. I sold the 1800-strike MAR2020 Gold CALL for 1.40 ($140) this morning.
CLOSING TRADE TODAY: I also covered my short MAR2020 Gold 1350-strike PUT at 0.20 today for a profit of (0.80 minus 0.20) = +$60 each.
Crude Oil: No doubt the airstrike last Friday spiked the oil prices. The chance of another round of military action by either party cannot be ruled out, which adds risk to the short MAR20 70-strike CALL. The MAR20 Crude oil trading 62.41 today, up from 58.70 a week ago (+3.71.) see: https://www.timefarming.com/blog/31-dec19/
As the story (below) mentions, the most likely outcome is that oil prices drift back down. I covered the 40-PUT today and will consider re-selling it or another PUT if/when prices drift back down.
Investors on Edge After U.S. Strike (News Story)
Corn: I continue to hold my MAR20 short 365-strike PUT. The underlying trading at 384.50 this morning and this option still priced about where it was sold when the trade was initiated:
I still expect the next WASDE from USDA coming up this Friday, 10th December 2020, to support this position. If you need to see the comment on this trade, look back at the “Trade Origination” tab above; my thinking on placing this trade is there. By the way, here’s the link for the WASDE report at Noon Eastern Time this Friday: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
My thinking is that the numbers in this report will support this trade position and keep MAR20 Corn futures well above the 365-strike.
China Trade Deal: Still no firm numbers or actions have yet resulted from the latest trade talks. As I’ve mentioned before, China doesn’t buy any major amounts of Corn from the USA, but their soybean purchases are VERY significant (They are/were by far the largest purchaser of USA soybeans.)
I will be discussing the numbers in the WASDE report next week and will examine some trading ideas based on those numbers. Know that the USDA could delay any final harvest numbers out to the FEB 2020 report (instead of the report this Friday.)
Just a reminder, especially for trial and new subscribers – Check out our Resources page with important links to USDA and other information sources. Also take a look at our free VIDEO TRAINING LIBRARY
Also here’s a link to an early morning ag report video station: Ag Day TV: Early morning agricultural program, Mon-Fri early Eastern time weekday mornings:
That’s it today. Have a great week. – Don
For more info on these books available w/ free prime shipping, please touch or click the cover photo. thanks.
I do a lot of my own trading with TastyWorks because I like the easy-to-use platform and they have lower commissions than most. The customer service is outstanding. I have an affiliate link and recommend them often for months now and I’ve never had any negative feedback. They also have excellent free mobile apps that are easy to use- and they have ACH free money transfers to-and-from you bank account (usually one day free service.) TastyWorks has just joined Schwab, ThinkOrSwim, and other brokers and introduced NO Commission stock trading.
TastyWorks: $2,000 minimum to open account. Easy online application, free ACH money transfers.
Read more about TastyWorks at this link please: http://daytradingmicros.com/brokers/
TastyWorks also has commissions on the new Micro e-Mini futures at only 85 cents.
Have any interest in day trading the new Micro E-mini stock index futures? If so, please consider my new book on the subject available on Amazon: (read more at this link)
The commentary and examples are for teaching purposes only and are not intended to be a trading or trade advisory service. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein on the web site and/or newsletter, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Trading with leverage could lead to greater loss than your initial deposit. Trade at your own risk. Investors and traders are responsible for their own investment/trading decisions including entries, exits, position, sizing and use of stops or lack thereof. This is not a trade advisory service and is for educational purposes only. The content on the pages here is believed to be reliable - but we cannot guarantee it.