27 MAY 2020 WEDNESDAY newsletter/commentary

Greetings: 27 MAY 2020 Wednesday

 Existing Positions:

Short the  40-strike AUG20 Crude Oil CALL for 0.36 ($360 credit)

Sold the JUL20 360-strike Corn CALL for 1.50 ($75).

Crude Oil has been see-sawing over the last week; the AUG20 Futures at midday today trading at 33.74  -1.04 per barrel.  I want to sell some Crude Options farther out in time soon but I’m waiting to see if/how much enthusiasm the market adds to the price of oil over the next couple of weeks.  I am still very reserved on the idea of selling any Crude Oil PUTS at this time – because of the recent dips in price to minus value near earlier contract’s expiration.  There is still a lot of oil in the ocean in transit.  The new weekly Crude Oil stocks report that usually is on WEDNESDAY is delay until tomorrow (Thursday) this week.  see: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/  to read that report.

Corn: Corn stocks are projected to rise significantly, while any signs of new and positive trade development between the US and China are not expect, especially with the unrest in Hong Kong which strains relations between the two countries.

There is likely to be a good chance to sell CALL options on Soybeans this summer.  Stocks are up, trade relations / tariff negotiations outlook is poor for any positive developments.

Gold still near $1700 per ounce.  Any positive signs on the Q3 and Q4 USA economy would be an opportunity to sell far OTM CALL options.  

At this time, I feel there is too much uncertainty of economic developments over the next weeks ahead, to take action at this time.  Next week, I will post some option prices to study and take a closer look.  I’ll be looking at more Crude CALLs, and some corn options out at harvest time in the SEP and DEC20 futures.

Stay well. 

Thank you. – Don Singletary

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