2019 Commentary

Greetings: 15 OCT 2019 TUESDAY

NOTE: You will find a summary of my current positions in the post below (just scroll down to see it):

There’s not a lot of change in the new week.   Gold prices down again today as the stock markets ride the highs on the tail of trade talks.  When the Dow breaks down next, gold prices will continue to waffle and prices should remain far below my FEB20 $1900-strike.

The USDA World Supply-Demand Projections were posted here in the most recent comments.  Here are few of the charts that have been updated with the Oct 2019 WASDE:  Corn prices fell 14 cents on the WASDE report last week, but then rebounded on the news of a China trade agreement.  As I noted, the grains (soy and corn) trade in sympathy on many days.  So I would say even though the China news is possibly ‘good’ that it is good for soy beans perhaps, but over the long haul not so much for Corn.  This is because China buys a very high percentage of the USA’s soybeans, but not nearly so much of the USA’s Corn.  My short 420-CALLS on the DEC19 contract expire in only 38 days.  The cold weather and snows could drive Corn prices up some more.

source free chart at CME website: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/corn-reports.html

source: Kansas State Univ

(Above) Gold FEB2020 1900-strike CALL expires on 28 Jan 2020 in 105 days out.   Since adding a short PUT to this class FEB20 would require little or no margin, the 1300-strike PUT FEB20 could be an interesting add to this short CALL.  The Gold FEB 2020 PUT class is in the matrix below:

And this chart (below) of Crude Oil is from last week, although Crude is trading almost the same at 53.44 today:

Summary of my current positions as of TUESDAY- 15 OCT 2019:

FYI: You may click the gold-colored Trade Origination button to see the original post on the date the trade was placed.

Crude Oil  FEB20 short strangle, the 80 CALL and 35 PUT

Short DEC19 short 420-strike CALL

Short the FEB20 1900-strike CALL for 1.9 ($190).

I’m keeping an eye on those FEB20 Gold PUTS.  That is all today.  Have a great week. – Don

Don A. Singletary
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